Presidential Election. The 60th Quadrennial U.S. Presidential Election runs on November 5th 2024. BUSR has the latest odds for all potential candidates (including a few names that may surprise you). All data will be updated throughout the many midterms, scandals, and surprise announcements that are sure to come between now and election night. Betting markets rival political polling for correctly picking outcomes of elections. See the likely 2020 President - according to online sportsbooks anyway. GOP Nomination 2024 GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024. $4,212,319 bet so far.

Many people might not think that a lot of people bet on political events and outcomes and that it’s a complete waste of time. What many don’t know, is that there is much money to be made in the increasingly large world of political betting. Bookmaker online and around the world have added political betting markets due to its popular demand.

Because there is always some sort of election or congressional nomination going on in the world bets are pretty popular. The most popular of these bets is the US Presidential race that in the past few years has been tight. The great thing about online sports books is that not only can you bet on your favourite politicians but you can also bet on outcomes around the world. Below we will discuss the different odds and betting types for political betting and go through some examples of each. First, let’s take a look at the best websites for betting on the political events, including the US presidential election.

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How To Bet On Politics

When it comes to betting on politics, there’s really only two types of bets you can make including the straight up and money line bets. Since the scope of politics is narrow in comparison to other sports you will see most bookmakers only offering these two types of bets which we’ve outlined for you in detail below.

• Straight Up Bet: The straight up bet is usually the most common type of bet that one would place when betting on politics. This bet is basically a wager on who will win a certain election or riding. The odds would be given to each candidate before the end of the elections and its up to you to bet on who wins. The favourite to win will have lower odds and the underdog will have higher odds. An example of this is during the 2010 US Presidential race Barack Obama had odds of 2:1 which meant that for every dollar you put down you would get $2 back. As for Senator McCain, his odds were 4:1 so that every dollar wagered to win would result in $4 back. McCain had a chance to win but Obama was the favourite and paid less.
• Money Line Bets: Another type of bet is a money line bet which is a wager on how much a certain candidate would win by. For example using the 2010 US Presidential race, if one was to wager that Obama would take at least 50% of all the states that would be considered a money line bet. These bets are quite fun as you can bet straight up on one candidate and bet on if another candidate would take a state.

Major Political Elections

• Presidential Elections (US): this election is probably one of the most popular and most watched across the globe. The person that takes office is usually considered one of the most powerful people in the world. There is a lot of excitement surrounding the primaries and the final election between the two parties in the US. This is also a great time for bettors to make wagers as it adds to all the excitement. The elections happen every 4 years and occur in October/November, with the winner being elected President of the United States and moving to the White House.
• Congressional Elections: Not all sports books carry these elections but Congressional elections are also very popular to bet on in the US. Certain races like the governor of California (Arnold Schwarzenegger) were very highly covered and many sports books placed bets.

Tips for Political Betting

The best way to become really good at betting on politics is to become very good at predicting the popularity of each candidate. External factors that come into play are scandals and death which are really hard to predict. The leading and most popular candidate can change from day to day and this was evident in the US primaries where Obama beat out Hilary Clinton. Many people had their money on the Hill Dog as the one to win it. Political bettors also must keep abreast of the so called “temperature” of a candidate as they are running for office. Politics is very dirty and ruthless and it all depends on the image of the person running and they have to be squeaky clean in order to pass through popular opinion.

The best way to keep track of your lucky candidate is by using the internet. It is one of the best ways to have instant updates on your candidates and their competition. Usually when information is leaked its on either a blog or a very big internet site. News programs such as CNN and others are great for keeping track of up to date facts and have great access to public opinion polls. Using these types of media will not always help you pick a winner but it will give you the most up to date standing of each of you candidates. The online sports books will usually offer the best odds on the underdog candidates. For bettors looking for more risk and a higher payout will like to bet on the underdog.

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Political prediction markets have been around for well over a century, but they’ve increasingly caught the attention of casual observers and mainstream media in recent years.

Proponents of these futures trading markets argue that they are more effective than traditional methods of predicting election outcomes, such as opinion polls. Many political scientists and economists agree, but their accuracy has been called into doubt after several recent misfires.

Let’s take a close look at exactly how these futures markets operate and whether they have value as you refine your strategy for how to bet on politics.

Bet On Political Outcome

What Are Political Prediction Markets?

Political prediction markets are exchanges where the public can buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of an election or other political event. They are generally real money markets, with the price of shares determined by demand.

The validity of political prediction markets is based on the efficient market hypothesis. The idea is that open markets are more predictive of future events than expert opinion because they aggregate and properly weigh all relevant information available to all people.

In theory, the market considers disparate information in a way no individual or small group would ever be capable of.

Think of it this way – even a Harvard-educated political scientist only has so many hours in a day. They listen to certain radio shows and read a certain newspaper. Their own political leanings and daily experiences cloud their perception of objective reality.

There is no way they can consume and effectively organize all the public information relevant to the question of whether Donald Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election.

But what if you could somehow merge their information and experiences with those of everyone else with an interest predicting the outcome?

The consensus efforts of hundreds of thousands of people relying on different information from separate sources would surely be more accurate than the whims of a single individual, right?

Because bettors are incentivized to do everything in their power to purchase the right shares at the right price, prediction markets should theoretically produce consensus opinions inclusive of all available information. People have money on the line, so the market expects them to act rationally and only purchase the shares they value.

It’s the classic free-market ideal of self-interested rational beings inadvertently working towards a more abstract big-picture goal.

Who knew Adam Smith’s invisible hand could reach its way deep into the pockets of your sportsbook?

How Do Political Prediction Markets Work?

Political prediction markets work in similar fashion to other commodity futures markets.

The market opens well in advance of the election and closes just before the outcome is settled. Shares are traded on a scale of 0 – 100, usually correlating to prices of $0.00 – $1.00.

When the market closes, shares associated with the actual outcome pay the market’s pre-set maximum value (usually $1.00). All other shares (associated with incorrect outcomes) pay nothing.

While the market is open, traders exchange shares among themselves. As with the stock market, everyone wants to buy low and sell high when trading. Holding the right shares when the election happens and the market closes guarantees a profit.

Shares go up in value as they become more desirable, which indicates public confidence in the associated political outcome has increased.

Because bettors can cut losses by selling shares they’ve lost confidence in, the price of less desirable shares will be driven down by the laws of supply and demand. Decreased share value indicates that public confidence in the associated outcome has decreased.

How Do Prediction Markets Help Us Make Predictions?

If we assume that prediction markets work exactly as intended, the price of each share should correlate precisely with the probability that outcome will occur.

For example, if shares that say Elon Musk will win the 2032 Presidential Election are trading at $0.74 (with correct predictions paying $1.00), the market is suggesting that he currently has a 74% chance of winning the election.

The simplicity of this metric makes it an extremely attractive way to quickly predict election outcomes.

But is it truly wise to trust abstract economic theory with your hard-earned bankroll? Should you put your faith in the so-called ‘wisdom of crowds’?

Political Bets Website

How Accurate Are Political Prediction Markets?

Historically, political prediction markets have been shockingly accurate. A comprehensive study published in the academic journal International Journey of Forecasting reveals that political prediction markets were 75% more accurate than a sample of nearly 1,000 public opinion polls in predicting the outcome of five Presidential Elections from 1988 – 2004.

But in 2016, they missed the mark, bigly, on two very significant events: Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. With these massive missteps in mind, it’s worth asking a few hard questions before you rely on a political prediction market to inform your betting strategy.

Why They Got It Wrong

For political prediction markets to live up to their promise, they need to meet a few conditions. The entire premise requires the market to consider information from diverse but highly informed sources.

If the profile of those trading within the market do not meet this profile, it’s worth taking conclusions with a grain of salt.

Make sure there is a deep base of investors

The efficient market hypothesis was developed based on the observation of traditional equity and commodity markets, which enjoy widespread public participation and represent a significant portion of the global economy.

To work as expected, a market requires depth in terms of both the number of investors participating and the value of the investments they’ve tied to the market.

Political prediction markets with only a few thousand participants can be swayed to suggest an inaccurate result by only a handful of individuals acting irrationally. The self-correcting mechanism of free markets only works when well-informed and highly rational actors significantly outnumber other participants.

Remember that most participants are hobbyists, not investors

These issues are exacerbated by the fact that most prediction market participants are primarily motivated by fun, not money.

People are risk averse when their life savings are on the line. When they’re trying to beat a few other journalists or lawyers for bragging rights and a few bucks? Not so much.

Bet On Political Events

Due to the small profile of today’s political prediction markets, most of the participants also fit a certain mold. They’re likely to be highly engaged in the political scene or even working in it.

This can create a feedback loop wherein prediction markets simply become an echo chamber of elite opinion. You know – an amplifier for the opinions of people who would have told you that the European project was infallible, and that Donald Trump could never win an election back in 2016.

Elite opinions do matter

While they were wrong about some of the more surprising geo-political events of recent years, political elites are typically significantly more informed than the general public. As such, it does make sense to use prediction markets when handicapping political props and futures.

Just approach the info the same way you would sports handicapping advice from a major media outlet like ESPN or CBS Sports. Comparing the suggestions of the prediction market to a poll aggregator like FiveThirtyEight provides another data point for additional context.

Using Prediction Markets to Bet on Politics

Using the information from political prediction markets to inform your wagers is very straightforward.

We already know that the implied probability suggested by the prediction market is simply the value of the share on a scale of 0 – 100. A share trading at $0.34 suggests a 34% chance that outcome will occur, while one trading at $0.95 suggests a 95% chance the associated outcome will occur.

Use these percentages to determine expected value when deciding whether to bite on a political prop bet. Calculate the implied probability suggested by the odds and compare it with the probability suggested by the prediction market. The difference between these two numbers is your perceived edge.

Everything You Need to Bet on Politics

Keep an eye on how the odds are changing in the most important races at our politics betting hub. You’ll also find the latest political betting news and our favorite online sportsbooks for betting on politics.

Whether you follow the sage advice of the political prediction markets or rely on your own intuition, please remember to gamble responsibly, and enjoy the action out there.